Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 91983.722291 96985.043854 101979.608201 107338.237955 112921.156215 118562.794405 124691.108986
2024-12-29 84795.490926 92542.659505 100489.449576 109239.489572 118592.452851 128279.285771 139059.189077
2025-01-05 79214.138597 88849.361030 98943.900901 110285.838814 122651.305166 135700.884949 150490.458694
2025-01-12 74262.767506 85253.097528 96974.677903 110369.539162 125214.620523 141124.783352 159426.874153
2025-01-19 70026.373296 82058.607982 95094.718079 110213.770510 127209.704387 145668.830909 167175.256520
2025-01-26 67744.866772 80825.558681 95193.140262 112071.231707 131278.101391 152376.950826 177226.418869
2025-02-02 65773.720261 79779.236496 95356.568541 113870.061229 135172.124505 158812.762593 186926.640421
2025-02-09 63457.179199 78188.031826 94768.066400 114690.933267 137853.718012 163805.711057 194947.246419
2025-02-16 60834.083854 76103.711578 93488.338359 114599.310133 139387.621867 167413.638182 201331.335348
2025-02-23 58821.740265 74639.375626 92841.452147 115162.219915 141611.717197 171765.934691 208544.621543
2025-03-02 56720.710075 72974.438084 91873.154959 115267.771618 143234.154563 175372.627479 214863.499664
2025-03-09 55602.788084 72440.007782 92201.919965 116874.158743 146601.405990 181007.824827 223566.342315
2025-03-16 53477.204417 70626.402430 90960.113618 116580.054652 147711.532361 184018.790308 229246.393745
2025-03-23 52517.635404 70216.389431 91394.407925 118298.120971 151237.205021 189913.525547 238394.109434
2025-03-30 51286.124342 69415.286297 91306.531366 119343.470357 153926.703767 194804.875410 246360.323046
2025-04-06 49655.079015 68050.178568 90468.361325 119417.034865 155393.532485 198203.453430 252526.821699
2025-04-13 48002.907292 66600.851738 89473.236849 119247.597610 156522.465523 201166.945185 258156.330270
2025-04-20 47451.610152 66542.387120 90206.206178 121225.635026 160304.396360 207370.839145 267757.801488
2025-04-27 46908.106277 66468.005361 90899.412039 123141.423484 164008.123693 213492.749215 277292.864757
2025-05-04 45929.416876 65788.173011 90790.213761 124015.584983 166393.131221 217990.646233 284848.202382
2025-05-11 44573.359428 64567.178427 89947.082515 123918.004492 167526.856981 220924.938950 290470.904617
2025-05-18 43580.749514 63799.792186 89664.330777 124517.443915 169528.513429 224934.197987 297438.302962
2025-05-25 42429.417913 62784.196294 89026.648890 124629.841272 170888.618602 228131.531856 303396.837764